Guy Carpenter: 2023 Atlantic hurricane risk increases

Guy Carpenter’s Catastrophe Resource Centre has warned that there is an increased risk of Atlantic hurricanes this year.

According to the Centre recent seasonal forecast updates from Colorado State, Tropical Storm Risk and the Weather Channel have all shifted to higher than normal number of named storms for the 2023 season due to record setting warm ocean temperatures across the Atlantic basin.

With four named storms so far in the season, forecasts call for an addition 13-14 named storms, an average of nine hurricanes with three becoming major (category-3 or higher).

The Centre added that El Nino is currently in a weak phase and is projected to grow in strength during the heart of the Atlantic season. While this will result in elevated periods of wind shear that reduce prospects of storm formation and intensification, long range outlooks expect periods of relaxed wind shear that will then produce bouts of elevated activity due to the record warm Atlantic ocean temperatures.

Long range weather forecasts are indicating a window of opportunity for relaxed wind shear and some increased probability of storm formation in the latter third of July into early August, the Centre concluded. At this juncture, this is the period to watch as the forecasts come into focus within the seven day outlook. In the central Atlantic, a low pressure system east of Bermuda may potentially form into a named storm in the next five days but poses no threat to land.