26 June 2023Analysis

Moody’s RMS: near-normal Atlantic hurricane season predicted

The Moody’s RMS forecast for 2023 indicates that a near-normal season is most likely, due to the competing and opposing influence of several key factors such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and above-average North Atlantic sea surface temperatures.

However, as Moody’s points out that it only takes one event to make a season costly or memorable, as seen during last year’s near-normal season with Hurricane Ian, anticipated to be one of the costliest US hurricanes on record and to reshape insurance markets for years to come.

The development of El Niño would typically result in a quieter hurricane season, but the higher sea surface temperatures would fuel more activity. The season could conclude with below- or above-normal activity if one of these competing factors exhibits a greater influence.

Beyond the US and the Americas, the outlook includes forecasts that predict typhoon activity in the Western North Pacific Basin in Asia-Pacific will be above average, given El Niño’s particular impact on the region, resulting in an increase in atmospheric instability.

The outlook also evaluates the historical performance of North Atlantic seasonal activity forecasts.