Acrisure Re predicts above-average 2025 hurricane season
After an active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spawned five major hurricanes, including the devastating impacts of Hurricanes Helene and Milton to the Southeastern and Mid-Atlantic US, the upcoming 2025 season is expected to see “above average” activity, although not quite as extreme as last year, according to the latest report issued by Acrisure Re, the re/insurance division of global fintech leader Acrisure.
Acrisure Re’s annual Pre-Season Hurricane Outlook is compiled by experts from the company’s analytics and modelling teams to offer the best advice to clients. The team has examined the following key variables to create a qualitative overview of the likely conditions this summer:
Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures are cooler than 2024 in key storm regions, likely reducing activity, but still above average, supporting an above-normal season.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is predicted to be neutral implying a likelihood of the hurricane-suppressing wind shear. Conditions in the Sahel region appear to be close to average, meaning Saharan dust is unlikely to play a major role supressing hurricane activity.
Simon Hedley, chief executive, Acrisure Re, said: “The January 2025 renewal season saw US property catastrophe reinsurance rates decline by 5% to 15% on a risk adjusted basis. Mid-year Florida renewals also saw rates decline even further from last year. Looking ahead to the 2026 renewals, much will depend on weather activity. As always, Acrisure Re will be monitoring the tropics and providing real-time updates both before and after any potential events using our suite of tools and analytics.”
Ming Li, partner and global head of catastrophe modelling, Acrisure Re, added: “Current indicators, including above-average Atlantic Sea surface temperatures and a projected neutral ENSO phase, point to an average to slightly above-average North Atlantic hurricane season in 2025. As these conditions continue to develop, Acrisure Re is closely watching the data to help clients prepare and respond with greater precision and confidence.”
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