Below-average doesn't mean low risk, Acrisure Re warns ahead of 2026 hurricane season
Early indicators suggest the upcoming 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is likely to experience activity hovering just below average, according to Acrisure Re.
While North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are not expected to reach the record-breaking levels observed in recent years, they remain above long-term averages across much of the basin, particularly in the western Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, forecasters anticipate the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will develop into the warm El Niño phase through the peak of hurricane season, with several models indicating the potential for a notably strong event. These conditions typically increase upper-level wind shear across the Atlantic basin, creating a less favourable environment for hurricane development.
The combination of warmer-than-average Atlantic SSTs, a projected El Niño pattern, and other evolving atmospheric and oceanic factors points toward a marginally below-average hurricane season overall.
“While we anticipate a more moderate season compared to recent years, the industry cannot afford complacency,” said Simon Hedley, chief executive of Acrisure Re. “The lessons of recent hurricane seasons continue to reinforce that it only takes one major storm making landfall in a populated region to create significant human and economic loss. Preparedness and disciplined risk management remain critical.”
Despite the seasonal outlook, hurricane forecasting remains inherently uncertain, with a broad range of potential outcomes still possible. Based on current data and prevailing Atlantic and Pacific Ocean conditions, Acrisure Re’s internal forecasting model currently projects approximately 13 named storms during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, compared to the long-term average of 14.
“Intraseasonal variability and shorter-term atmospheric patterns will continue to influence when and where storms develop throughout the season,” said Ming Li, global head of cat modelling at Acrisure Re. “Although overall activity may trend closer to average, elevated ocean temperatures in key regions mean the potential for rapid intensification and impactful landfalls remains a significant concern.”
Acrisure Re will continue to closely monitor evolving meteorological conditions and provide timely insights and updates to support clients in their preparation, response, and risk management strategies throughout the hurricane season.
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