Hurricane Milton forms in Gulf of Mexico

Hurricane Milton has undergone explosive rapid intensification, strengthening from a tropical storm yesterday morning to a category 5 hurricane today, a rate rarely seen in the Atlantic basin. 

In a briefing note Acrisure Re warned that in the short-term, Milton could continue to intensify further as it precariously approaches the Yucatan Peninsula.

Acrisure Re said that according to the models, the storm will turn towards the east today and the northeast tomorrow as it begins its trek towards the Florida Gulf Coast. The storm is likely to weaken slightly before landfall due to increasing shear and dry air, but Milton is still expected to be a very large and powerful hurricane at the time of landfall. 

It also warned that: “Exact location and intensity at landfall are still uncertain, but areas up and down the western Florida coast should be preparing for a major event, especially in the Tampa Bay metro region.”

Milton is moving east-southeast off the northwestern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The storm is expected to turn east today as a frontal low pressure area over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico departs, although the storm might come very close to making landfall along the northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. A new mid-level trough will dip into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, causing Milton to turn towards the east-northeast and northeast at a faster forward speed. 

The exact location of landfall along the Florida Gulf Coast is still uncertain, but models seem to be honing in on Tampa Bay area. 

The last time that a major hurricane directly affected the Tampa Bay area was the 1921 Tarpon Springs Hurricane, which made landfall as a Category 3 with sustained winds of 115 mph. Whether the storm strikes to the north or the south of the bay will have large ramifications on the maximum storm surge, but powerful, strong winds will be felt far from the center of the landfall location. Milton will traverse the Florida Peninsula and move offshore over the western Atlantic where it will likely become a post-tropical cyclone.  

Did you get value from this story?  Sign up to our free daily newsletters and get stories like this sent straight to your inbox.